The macroeconomic events calendar for April 4, 2025

Today, the economic calendar offers essential data for global markets. In Europe, among the first releases, analysts expect the data on factory orders in Germany for February to show a recovery of +3.4%, compared to the previous -7.0%. Subsequently, analysts will release the monthly industrial production data for France for February, forecasting an improvement from the last -0.6%, reaching +0.5%. Analysts expect February's annual industrial production data to show a contraction of -1.0% in Spain. Meanwhile, several Eurozone countries will release data on construction sector PMI indices, including Italy, Germany, France, and the entire Eurozone. These data should highlight continued weakness in the industry, with values around 40 points, well below the 50 threshold separating contraction from expansion.

Analysts will focus on the construction PMI indices in the United Kingdom, expecting them to remain just above 44 points. At the same time, analysts predict that car registrations will show a slight annual decline of around -1%. In addition to monitoring car registrations in Italy, analysts will release data on the public deficit for the fourth quarter and retail sales for February, forecasting moderate annual growth of 0.9%.

Alongside these European economic data, markets will also focus on the United States, where analysts expect the non-farm payroll figures for March to be a primary focus. Analysts predict the creation of approximately 137,000 new jobs, down from 151,000 in February. In addition, analysts will pay attention to the unemployment rate, which they expect to remain stable at 4.1%, and average hourly earnings, which should increase by 3.9% year-on-year. Meanwhile, analysts will observe March employment data in Canada, forecasting an increase of 10,400 jobs compared to a previous gain of 1,100. Analysts expect the unemployment rate to rise from 6.6% to 6.7%. Throughout the day, several members of the Federal Reserve, including Jerome Powell and Michael Barr, will speak, potentially providing indications on the future direction of monetary policy. Market participants will closely follow these remarks, as they may influence expectations on interest rates in the United States.